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International Business, March 30, 2021 Organizations can be prepared to respond to geopolitical risks across multiple time frames. We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. We call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, and nascent-risk managers. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. Kroll OnTrack Inc. or their affiliated businesses. 2. This sentiment largely continued in the second . The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. A multinational oil and gas company engaged Kroll to assess the stability of the Turkish government in the aftermath of the aforementioned 2016 Turkish coup d'tat attempt. Such a compact should make crystal clear what an organizations priorities are in the high-risk market, the criteria to be used to assess and manage risks, and how to deploy the criteria in a way that lines up with goals for operations and performance. All rights reserved. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. 11 Jan 2023 CEO agenda Six ways asset managers can prepare for an uncertain future 2 Feb 2023 Wealth and asset management JPMorgan said it had provisioned roughly $300 million to cover markdowns on its Russian loans. Successful geopolitical risk managers tend to hire a cadre of personnel with experience in doing business in the market and dealing with local agencies. Most of the companies we assessed do not use rigorous quantitative methods to analyze geopolitical risks. For that reason, a company may need to issue guidance on a range of other topics, such as the appropriate way to discuss geopolitically sensitive topics in publications or speeches and how to depict contested borders on maps. oil companies, airlines, tech firms ,etc.). Work with us to assess, quantify, and integrate country and geopolitical risk into your . The other stream is to work for such client companies directly, in an "in-house" role - i.e. Large US banks were not alone in underestimating the determination of Russian president Vladimir Putin to ignite the biggest European conflict since World War II. A holistic view uses four lenses: global geopolitical trends and scenarios, ongoing operations, investment decision making, and frequent monitoring of evolving events and development that can affect the business. Expropriation Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. Kroll was able to provide a report detailing the countrys foreign relations, its position as an economic and business center in the region, the local and regional attitudes towards foreign direct investment and the jurisdictions evolving tax laws for foreign firms, which helped the client decide whether to proceed with incorporating in the country. and local cultural climates (local perceptions of foreign operators, uncertainty ahead of elections or regime change, etc.). Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. 3 On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on a rolling basis. Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. But the discussions often focus on a specific investment, project, or market entry or exit. Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. Minimize risk, optimize strategy, and seize opportunity with Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. firms, Access global tax, legal, All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. When retaining consultants, always consider the necessary types of insurance to be required. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. Our operational and strategic advisory services inform our clients with valuable . Yet few companies consistently act on it. One consumer packaged goods company we studied has developed a strong knowledge-sharing culture among functional networks. Theyre the technology companies and oil producers that can tell a political backlash is brewing well before it hits full force and then use their foresight to reposition their businesses ahead of competitors. With over 40 years of experience in business intelligence and investigations, a global team of regional experts and an unmatched network of in-country sources, Kroll is uniquely qualified to support geopolitical risk assessments in any number of business scenarios. We offer our . Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. Stay connected with us and get all latest updates. Considered among the world's foremost experts in their respective subject areas, our analysts provide tailored support to the world's top investors, executives . Our main office is located in Oslo. 4 Some may, for commercial and strategic reasons, choose to strengthen ties to the countries where the companies are based. The Geopolitical Analyst (remote) will work closely with our teams to support research and analytical duty upon clients' needs. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest,. Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Geopolitical risk, however, is unlike credit, liquidity, or counterparty default risk. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. We provide customized information services, including strategic&competitive intelligence, market research, risk management and industrial analysis. Geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. Discussions can focus on three risk areas: brand and reputation; operational issues, such as cybersecurity strategy; and products, services, and partnerships. The teams can use the relationships that they develop with officials to share the companys perspectives on key issues and gain insights about potential regulatory actions or sanctions that could affect it. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. Our . Already a member? We support each client's unique risk profile . Case Study 3 This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. 1. Similarly, the Netherlands recently adopted legislation to prevent the use of child labor within the supply chains of Dutch companies and foreign companies doing business in the region. Whether the billions of dollars in losses linked to Russias invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have prompted big banks to increase their geopolitical expertise remains unclear. One Western energy company, for instance, credited the skills and transparency of its government relations staff for being able to operate simultaneously in two Middle Eastern nations despite strong political tensions between the two governments. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. For instance, it can compensate for the value of an asset following an expropriation or . Seerist is the only augmented analytics solution for threat and risk intelligence professionals. Quantifying return on advocacy is difficult, however. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. Otherwise, internal fissures can build and burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance. "dots": false, The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. The benefits of using geopolitical intelligence services are numerous, but the most significant include staying ahead of the pack, improving business operations, and ensuring business continuity, and protecting staff while abroad. With Thomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, you can find and get clarity on regulatory developments. Taking a bionic approach to digital transformation can lead to successful business outcomes. Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Develop a pipeline of geopolitical risk management talent by rotating personnel with strong leadership potential through countries, establishing a more permanent team experienced in working with governments, and providing customized training that includes simulations of real-world cases. However, it added, only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this.. A confirmation email has been sent to you. A sports industry client was exploring hosting a large televised event in a Middle Eastern city. Independent data and analysis for opportunity sizing, local partner selection, government stakeholder assessment and risk assessment. Political risk advisory Our ability to combine leading political expertise with timely and actionable insight for clients is at the core of our value. Advanced Country Analysis & Forecasting Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact. Our intelligence analysts are building on 20 years experience in understanding political risks faced by our clients in insurance and financial services. 4. The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. Forecasting government action and decisions. Case Study 2 Some companies, however, not only navigate disruption successfully but actually thrive because of it. Building a more holistic and entrepreneurial approach requires action in all three dimensions: enhancing the strategic role of risk management, ingraining it into the organization, and developing robust processes. There are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model. In a global business environment characterized both by hypercompetition and intensifying geopolitical headwinds, it is no longer enough for companies with global footprints to only react defensively. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. As a management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group . Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. 5-minute read. Leaders face an uncertain landscape. Human Rights Violations | Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Compacts provide strategic guidance for engaging within a country. New York NY 10055. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. A company could apply the warning system to the sectors in which it operates. World Path Consulting San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote. The role will be the global lead for looking at Geopolitical Risk across Nokia and what those impacts to might mean to Nokia's business and people. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Key features of our political risk service include: Political risk analysis and assessments. Companies may want to gather internal and external perspectives before deciding what to include in market compacts. Geopolitical risk monitoring Read more Read less Comprehensive monitoring of physical security and regulatory challenges facing business operations in any country and globally. . for broadcasters and publishers, Explore our tax and We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl Sign up to receive periodic news, reports, and invitations from Kroll. Reputational risk could be amplified if any or all of these risks are not mitigated properly. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly and creates multi-dimensional challenges for global organisations. Adaptive artificial intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk expertise from Control Risks. GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. Below are several examples in which Kroll was able to help clients anticipate the type, probability and impact of geopolitical volatility on its operations in key emerging markets. Political risk consulting. Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Read our @SPGCI report: https://t.co/3wDIVkZ5hW, For the first time since 2006, The Progressive Corp. recorded more personal lines net premiums written than GEICO C https://t.co/DeF2omCrl0, Occidental #Petroleum's chemical division sees lingering uncertainty in polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda demand https://t.co/9cqw2zMJPo, { BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. Meanwhile continuing shortages of raw materials (39%), logistics and warehousing (35%) and components (33%) are all . Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. Operations in countries with poor human rights records can cause supply chain disruptions but can also lead to reputational damage and give rise to class action lawsuits, public boycotts or stockholder divestment campaigns. Comprehensive spectrum of risk-based screening and due diligence solutions. In-depth analysis, they recognize, does not come solely from algorithms. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. Capital reserves, credit portfolios, investment policies and capital and debt profiles all demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk. Every organization we studied relies on input and expertise from the field. ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. Idiosyncratic geopolitical riskconstructed using the transcripts of firms' earnings calls, and Sydney Olympic Park NSW 2127 Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. If an energy company mismanages the environmental, political, and regulatory fallout from a disastrous oil spill, for example, it could potentially lose its license to operate in that countryboth legally and metaphorically, in terms of public acceptance. 3. American Express. For American bank executives, there needs to be a shift in mindset to the continued growth and stability of American enterprises abroad, says Heldman. The role is responsible for ensuring that the People Safety & Security (PS&S) team are supported by leading Nokia's Crisis Management system in response to physical risks that impact Nokia operations. MPhil student at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the PhD level. Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Geopolitical forces at work in the economy. Leveraging Our Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Risk. Case Study 1 Leverage unparalleled We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. Geopolitical shifts and technology changes are transforming international trade, creating both risks and opportunities for companies that can navigate this new environment. Instead, boards can dedicate regular standing time to analyzing how to respond to the geopolitical risks that their enterprises face as part of a broader board effort to build more resilient companies. Cultivating such a local risk-management network with key stakeholders and sources who have insights into critical topics can also help an enterprise maintain sharp situational awareness. Global geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty have increased dramatically over the past decade, according to leading indices. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. Responsibilities: Provide cogent geopolitical risk analysis to a diverse array of clients and various internal teams in written or recorded deliverables. . Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. Whats more, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought geopolitical risk factors into sharp relief. SVA. Adept & highly organized self-stater. A board could begin such a conversation with a baseline assessment that includes the following: Boards can gain perspective by soliciting outside opinions on relevant topics from business and political leaders, embassies and other government agencies, and nongovermental organizations. Conduct time-efficient international policy monitoring and updates. However, it added, "only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this." Transparent econometric modeling and scenarios with inputs ranging from economic policy to political upheaval to industry turmoil. The report draws on the survey results from nearly 700 experts and decision-makers globally who were asked about their concerns . We provide geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services and solutions that are timely, market-relevant and forward-looking. iStrategic LLC is a Political Risk Analysis and Consulting firm specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. Please feel free contact with us if you have any further questions or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, Risk Consulting. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. "fade": true, Long-term planning can also cover such issues as the following: For both internal and external stakeholders, walking a geopolitical tightrope may cause leaders to redefine how they think about and position their companies. Prudent geopolitical risk management also requires understanding how to deal with issues that cross borders. Related Expertise: For many companies, the strategic competition between China and the United States will top the list of standing risk issues to discuss. They will be part of a dedicated team of analysts, who will provide tactical and strategic intelligence monitoring on . Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. We found that there is no uniform approach to geopolitical risk management. Having an intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical in order to identify challenges before they become problems. Exploring government strategy. Many companies, both financial and non-financial, were caught off guard, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in advance. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, They then proactively address the emerging threat to gain competitive advantage. Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . Geopolitics is "the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations.". Nearly half of bank CROs (48%) plan to broaden methods for identifying new or emerging political risks and a quarter plan to build new tools for qualitative tracking and reporting on political risk measures.. SVA ( www.stevevickersassociates.com) is a specialist international risk mitigation, corporate intelligence and risk consulting company. "arrows": false, Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. Integrated solutions - consulting, risk management and broking - to help organizations prevent and protect against interlinked geopolitical risks. Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. (2019). Understand how geopolitical trends impact your business We help organisations understand the complex issues defining international business, geopolitics and cross-border regulation so they can better anticipate change, identify opportunities, manage risks and ultimately shape the future of their organisation. Regulatory Burdens Speaking to the Atlantic Council recently, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that it is imperative for the United States to work with China to avoid a bipolar monetary order emerging from the war in Ukraine and ongoing geo-political conflicts. Marcin Grajewski, The EU strategic autonomy debate: What think tanks are thinking, European Parliament Think Tank, March 30, 2021, europarl.europa.eu. . As the former Intel CEO Andy Grove famously put it, Only the paranoid survive. Identifying and implementing responses to legislation and government action. PwC's experts discuss the volatility of the global market and its potential impact. Cultural Missteps Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. Industries that are positively exposed to geopolitical risks suffer a decline in investment that is larger than the aggregate effect. Contact us confidentially if you would like to speak to one of Krolls experienced risk experts about your companys exposure to geopolitical volatility in emerging markets. . No matter their starting point, BCG can help. Get the latest news and intelligence on global issues impacting business, politics, economics, military, security and energy. New market entry trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services Violence and Civil Unrest The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. It is the first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, flag and share regulations. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. A strong cross-functional interface is critical, especially for companies that take a holistic approach to risk assessment. Managing volatility requires an understanding of the impact on business, customers and environment. Nascent-risk managers use an almost entirely defensive strategy, with minimal organization and processes. Work with us to identify the organizations and individuals with influence and decision-making power critical to your business success, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting The 16th edition of the Global Risks Report, published by the World Economic Forum with support from Marsh McLennan, highlights the disruptive implications of major risks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, that may reshape our world in 2021 and over the next decade.
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geopolitical risk consulting